— Observer Research Foundation
WARS have disrupted agriculture throughout history. But the nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine, a war between two agricultural production powerhouses in the context of globalised agricultural markets, presents never-before-seen consequences for global agriculture and food security. Nine months into the war, the contours of these consequences are clear: exports from Ukraine have reduced, future harvests are in question, global prices of agriculture commodities have spiked, and most exposed are the countries that rely on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia to feed their citizens or on fertiliser from Russia and Belarus to produce their own food. What can we expect in the coming months? What are the lessons for policymakers?
Global agricultural markets have endured supply-side shocks and price spikes before. In 2007 and 2008, concurrent droughts in multiple food-exporting countries, food export bans by many more, and high energy prices caused the nominal price of food to double, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Global undernourishment may have reached a 15-year high in 2020 due to the continued effects of climate change and regional conflict, on top of the economic and supply chain shocks caused by the Covid pandemic. There is a positive link between food security and stability. Conversely, especially in a globalised era, armed conflicts can be a key driver of food insecurity that affects regions beyond the battlefield; the food crises of the past decade have laid bare the systemic challenges in fending off food insecurity in conflict settings.
These crises reveal why governments or belligerents lack either the capacity or the will to address them and why humanitarian aid struggles to reach people in need. The current Russia-Ukraine war has both created new food insecurity and highlighted existing systemic weaknesses in international food security. Our fragile world is facing an impending global food crisis. As extreme weather and drought collide with the impact of the pandemic, war, and rising inflation, more and more people are facing food insecurity. Here is how we are mobilising to meet the need. Food insecurity has been rising since 2018. Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the increasing frequency and severity of climate shocks, regional conflicts and the pandemic were all taking their toll, disrupting food production and distribution and driving up the cost of feeding people and families.
The situation took an even more dramatic turn with the war in Ukraine. This pushed the prices of food and fertilisers higher, hurting importers and prompting several countries to impose export restrictions. For the global food supply chain, there are few worse countries to be at war with than Russia and Ukraine. Together, the two provide almost 30 per cent of the world’s wheat, plus barley, sunflower seed oil and corn, feeding billions of people. This war is tipping our fragile world toward mass hunger. Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus are two of the world’s top producers of potash, an ingredient in fertiliser. Farmers worldwide are affected. So with Russia’s exports blocked by many countries and Ukraine’s planting season impacted by the fighting, a huge supply of the world’s food is trapped or disrupted.
According to the World Bank, this hits poor and low-income countries hardest as they depend on food imports the most. Food has suddenly become very expensive. Trips to the supermarket and the gas station cost a lot more, up to one-third and two-thirds more, according to the United Nations. The Russia-Ukraine war is worsening this inflation, making it even harder to get food at a decent price. With families in emerging economies spending an average of 25 per cent of their budgets on food, rising to 40 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa and 60 per cent in Haiti, the rising cost of living could place households with children in life-or-death situations. Food price increases are having devastating effects on the poorest and most vulnerable, says World Bank Group president David Malpass.
Around 30 per cent people in Bangladesh are facing food scarcity, though the country’s economy has recovered from the shocks caused by the pandemic. The number of people who went to sleep hungry almost doubled to 13 per cent in May this year from 7 per cent in June last year, according to the survey. The Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies said, about 6 per cent of the people surveyed in May this year said they could not buy food. The figure was 5 per cent in June last year. The number of people who didn’t eat for 24 hours rose to 2 per cent in May this year from 1 per cent in June last year, the survey said. However, there has been a significant decrease in the number of people who ate smaller meals over the last year. It fell to 9 per cent in May this year from 17 per cent in June last year. Presenting the keynote, Ayago Wambile said, price increases are reported as a key challenge and impediment to food security.
Food insecurity has heightened the vulnerability of the most food-insecure regions, including the countries in the poorest areas. The WB survey said food security for 70 per cent of Bangladesh’s population has not changed in one year since June 2021. The country’s economy has seen a V-shaped recovery in the last two years since the onset of the Covid pandemic but the recovery was uneven, as people from all levels failed to get the result of such a recovery. A Frequency Phone Survey was conducted at 10 different times between June 2020 and May 2022. It was carried out at the national level as well as in urban and slum areas of Dhaka, Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar. The sample size ranged from 1,300 to 7,700 people.
According to the study, during the time since the onset of the pandemic in June 2020, 31 per cent of people were unable to get Tk 25,000 in cash in case of an emergency. The number fell to 4 per cent in May this year. Also, the population faces difficulties getting emergency cash in times of crisis. In developed countries, the state ensured cash assistance for people. Referring to the study’s findings, he said the country’s economy suffered during the lockdowns. It gradually bounced back, but everyone didn’t equally reap the benefits of the recovery. In his presentation, Wambile said 55 per cent of people in slum areas were unable to pay rent in June 2020, while that number came down significantly to 25 per cent in May this year. According to the study, 22 per cent of tenants in slum areas feared eviction by house owners in June 2020. The number dropped to 14 per cent in May this year, mentioning that the country’s vulnerability to economic shocks has risen.
About nine months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, two farming powerhouses, has plunged a teetering global food system into full-blown catastrophe, leaving millions of people facing starvation. The war is exacerbating a crisis already fueled by climate change, soaring costs of living and a fertiliser price hike that is creating the most acute global food crisis in decades. A UN-brokered agreement to reopen the Black Sea for food ships may not be enough to bring relief to the millions of people struggling to eat across Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Humanitarian agencies are scrambling to prepare themselves for even more critical levels of hunger as they face a €14 billion annual gap in food security spending, according to a 2020 report by Ceres 2030, also a think tank. Moscow’s war in Europe’s breadbasket has severely rocked global food markets, forcing humanitarian agencies to slash food rations in countries like Yemen.
Thirty-six countries rely on Ukraine and Russia for more than half of their wheat imports. A special UN crisis task force is monitoring more than 60 countries that are struggling to pay for food imports. High energy prices and volatility in the food markets have put extra pressure on cash-strapped developing countries. As more people grow hungry globally, the UN goal to end hunger by the end of the decade looks further away than ever. Drought is gripping the Horn of Africa, leaving some 26 million people facing food shortages in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia over the next six months. More than 7 million livestock animals have already been wiped out. Across East Africa as a whole, some 50 million people are facing acute food insecurity. Seven years ago, world leaders committed to a highly ambitious target: ending hunger by 2030.
That goal is now more distant than ever. The United Nations estimates that the number of people in hunger emergencies, one step away from famine, has jumped from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million. The UN humanitarian chief recently warned that famine is at the door in Somalia. Across the drought-ravaged Horn of Africa, 22 million people are at risk of starvation. Pakistan suffered a massive deluge, and as much as four-fifths of its livestock died. In southern China, drought and a heatwave are putting crops at risk. These follow Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which affected supplies from two major exporters and sent energy and fertiliser prices soaring. The UN World Food Programme’s chief economist has noted that the war itself did not create the crisis but rather put a lot of fuel on an already burning fire.
Multiple conflicts and climate shocks were already having an impact when the pandemic hit. Though its effects on food production were not as severe as many had feared, it depleted reserves and many countries have not recovered. It looks highly likely that 2023 will be worse. Two-thirds of those affected by hunger last year were women, with the food security gap between women and men multiplying since 2018. The UN stresses that at the moment, the issue is not supply but access and affordability. Globally, prices have risen by about 20 per cent year-on-year (while food inflation stands at 33 per cent in Iran and a staggering 122 per cent in Lebanon). But production is an increasing concern. Fertiliser prices have soared by as much as 300 per cent in some countries in Africa; wars and extreme weather are disrupting planting for next year’s crops.
The causes of today’s global agriculture commodity price shocks are not unexpected. In the 2015 Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Food Security, the US Intelligence Community noted that large exportable supplies of key components of food production, such as phosphates, potash, and fuel oil come from states where conflict or government actions could cause supply chain disruptions that lead to price spikes. In the years to come, climate change, extreme weather, conflict, diseases, resource constraints, and environmental degradation will continue to suppress agricultural production, with isolated or global effects. In their responses to today’s global food crisis, policymakers would be wise to consider establishing mechanisms with staying power so that the next time supplies fall and prices spike, they will not need to invent solutions from scratch.
Rayhan Ahmed Topader is a researcher and columnist.
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